Integrated modelling on mediterranean systems

TWP2. Toward an integrated modelling
of the Mediterranean systems

Leaders: Alberte Bondeau (IMBE), Melika Baklouti (MIO)
Contacts: alberte.bondeau (at), melika.baklouti (at) 

The consortium has good experience with numerical modelling of all subsystems of the Mediterranean. One transversal goal of OT-Med will be to better integrate these approaches, ultimately developing an integrated model for the Mediterranean. OT-Med will provide opportunities for this by organising workshops with well-respected specialists in the areas of interest, as well as experts on socio-ecological analyses of the human-environment interface. The integrated modelwill be based on several major coupled components: 

  • Complex general circulation models (GCM) (ex. IPSL and intermediate complexity models to make joint climate simulations ex. LOVECLIM
  • Downscaling using statistical models and meso-scale models (collaborations with labex L-IPSL) 
  • Ecosystem models to simulate the natural vegetation and water budget at the scale of the catchment basin: LPJ-GUESS, LPJmL 
  • Agro-ecosystem model LPJ-managed Lands (LPJmL) Collaboration will be also developed with the LABEX BACS around the model IPSL-ORCHIDEE. 
  • Marine model, OT-Med partners are developing their own codes for 3D physical-biogeochemical coupled models, coupled to hydrodynamical models developed in by other collaborating institutes (e.g. Eco3M). 
  • Modelling of societal behaviour in the face of changing climate will be based on multi-agent socio-economic models.

Data assimilation is an important tool to make the simulations more realistic. In this project, we propose to constrain initial conditions and some parameters. This approach has the advantage of proposing a framework to quantify the uncertainties on the parameters and the simulations.

Using climate forcings (insolation, solar activity, volcanism, land cover, green-house gases, sulfate aerosols) the climate model will simulate climatic fields at the global scale for the last millennia. The statistical downscaling technique will be applied to infer high-resolution climatic fields for the Mediterranean Basin. These climate data will be made available to run the ecosystem models over the Holocene. The predicted crops will be introduced into the ABM to quantify the vulnerability of Mediterranean societies to climatic changes.Future scenarios produced by the IPCC will be used to study the sensitivity of the Mediterranean’s natural and anthropogenic ecosystems to projected changes. We will simulate vital resources (biomass, water, crops, fisheries etc.) and study the habitability of Mediterranean basin to these changes.

Main TWP2 results

Ongoing OT-Med projects - PhD thesis 


Impact of climate change and land-use on the carbon sequestration and the productivity of marine ecosystems of the Mediterranean Sea (included in LaSeR-Med project, started in 2016) 

PhD student: Rémi Pagès
Supervisor: Melika Baklouti (MIO), Thierry Moutin (MIO), Dominique Ami (GREQAM) 

This PhD projectis included in the LaSeR-Med project (call for projects 2016):
Towards an integrated prediction of Land & Sea Responses to global change in the Mediterranean Basin (LaSeR-Med) 
Project leaders: Melika Baklouti (MIO), Alberte Bondeau (IMBE), Dominique Ami (GREQAM) + CERGAM (ECCOREV), ECODEV

Carbon cycle and biodiversity in Mediterranean oak forest: impact of climate change (CYCABIOCLIM) (started in 2014) 

PhD student: Susana Patricia da Silva Pereira 
Supervisoirs: Virginie Baldy (IMBE), Catherine Fernandez (IMBE) 
(also WP2)

Modern and Past recharge of the Saharan Aquifer Systems by coupling geochemical tracers (14C, 36Cl,…) and hydrological modeling (started in 2014) 

Project name: Geo-Economic Saharan Aquifer System (GESAS) 
PhD student: Chloé Poulin 
Supervisor: Pierre Deschamps (CEREGE) 
(also WP1)

Modeling of Mediterranean agrosystems functioning. Analysis of scenarios for the future of the Mediterranean agriculture in a context of global change (started in 2012) 

PhD student: Simon Decock 
Supervisor: Alberte Bondeau (IMBE), Wolfgang Cramer (IMBE) 
(also WP2)

Ongoing OT-Med projects - Postdocs


Formulation of regional socio-economic scenarios for an integrated prediction of land & sea responses to global change in the Mediterranean Basin (included in LaSeR-Med project) (TWP2)

Postdoctoral fellow: Leonith Hinojosa
Advisor: Claude Napoléone (ECODEV-INRA), Dominique Ami (GREQAM)